Kiley McDanielMay 14, 2026, 07:00 AM ETCloseESPN MLB Insider Kiley McDaniel covers MLB prospects, the MLB Draft and more, including trades and free agency. Has worked for three MLB teams. Co-author of Author of ‘Future Value’ Follow on XMultiple Authors
Starting with a suddenly very intriguing race to go No. 1 through the 40th pick of the draft, we project what all 30 teams will do.
There is still plenty of time for decisions to work themselves out with high school state tournaments and the college postseason unfolding. The MLB draft combine will be crucial for prospects projected to go in Rounds 3-5, while the real measure for first-round implications will come in private workouts and during team meetings to sort through the information clubs have collected throughout the draft cycle.
Emerson is perceived by other teams as having slightly higher upside and would come with some savings (to be spent on later picks) compared to Cholowsky, with the pro-Cholowsky camp arguing that he’ll be a big league shortstop in 12 months and there’s less variance/risk in his overall projection.
The other complication here is the competition from below. The Giants have been rumored all spring to be aggressively trying to land Cholowsky or Emerson at No. 4 via an overslot bonus. They just traded Patrick Bailey to Cleveland in a deal that included getting the 29th pick, which comes with just under $3.3 million more pool money.
I would expect Emerson, Cholowsky or possibly Vahn Lackey to be the pick here. I don’t think Lackey would offer enough of a discount (because he likely goes third) to be a real threat to be the pick here, but he is the alternative.
There is a pretty solid industry consensus that Lackey is the clear third-best player behind the clear top two. Minnesota is in a great spot and should just take whichever of these three lands here. There’s no indication that bonus demand would affect the Twins’ pick, which is why the Giants’ gambit seems unlikely to work.
Lombard is the hot name here, with Jackson Flora and Eric Booth Jr. the likely alternatives. The Giants seem to be setting a new course in the draft, leaning hard into upside and high school players: Lombard checks both boxes.
Lombard, Booth Jr. and Flora are the most rumored names here, and they should all go by the seventh pick. There has been a bit of buzz that Pittsburgh’s competitive window opening will move the Pirates toward the potential quick-moving college player from that group rather than trying another moonshot with a prep hitter who needs some refinement.
This series of events would lead K.C. to the player who might have the highest upside in the entire draft class, but Booth will need some offensive refinement to tap into that 30/30 upside. There’s some buzz that the prep lefty pitcher group will get some attention here on a bonus deal.
The A’s have been scouting Booth Jr. as well, but I don’t think he gets this far and Burress and Cameron Flukey could also fit here.
Hacopian and Jared Grindlinger both make some sense here, too. I think the underslot option here would be someone from the best of the prep lefties, all mocked below.
This is the first pick for Colorado’s new regime, and the industry thinks they’ll play it relatively safe with an accomplished collegiate, then look to the prep pitcher demographic (probably a lefty) at one of their next picks.
Flukey just returned from a rib injury, so he could still move a bit in either direction. The college position players that went just before this pick all could fit here if any slide, too.
Grindlinger has been rumored to this general range of picks and the Nationals since opinions started to roll in after his late reclassification. And there is enough overall interest that I don’t think Grindlinger lasts into the 20s.
He’s a true two-way player, but teams now see him more as a hit-over-power right fielder with a nice secondary skill set on the mound. As a pitcher-only prospect, he’d probably go in the comp to second round.
The Angels will go with an accomplished collegiate here, like they always do, but some of those players went just before this pick.
Peterson might not be a quick mover given his 4.28 ERA this spring, but he has above-average stuff and should go inside of Pick 20. Derek Curiel and the college players just before this pick all fit well here, too, if available.
The Cards will have a number of viable options here, but maybe none that really light them up. Curiel is a safe, proven hit-first outfielder from the SEC, while Lebron represents a moonshot, Trevor Condon (this is his high-water mark) is a red-hot prep center fielder but doesn’t come with much power upside, while Sawyer Strosnider and Aiden Robbins fit somewhere in the middle of this continuum.
Condon is rising late in the spring to where he has a good shot to land in the top 20 picks. This is a very flat part of the draft, where you could argue almost a dozen players are the best player on the board, but Condon fits the D-backs’ draft history the best of the options here.
This is the part of the draft where the teams aren’t really sure who’s getting to them (this is around where scouting directors ask me who I think will make it to their pick) so they’re still figuring out who their targets are for different scenarios. This is around the middle of Strosnider’s range, and he would be a local pick for the Rangers.
I’ve generally lumped Strosnider and Robbins together through this process, both power-over-hit outfielders at major Texas colleges, and things worked out in this scenario that they landed back-to-back to the two Texas MLB franchises. Robbins should go in the next half-dozen picks if he gets past this pick.
Carlon is rising, as a potential quick mover with some relief risk but also a standout fastball/slider mix that he leans on heavily.
If you felt like I didn’t seem convinced that certain college position players would land in certain spots after Pick 10, some scouts think that the collegiate pitching — starting with Carlon and including all the college arms below — will jump into that range. They would likely be taken largely at underslot deals, and be the best bets to get to Double-A in under a year and return some trade value, at least, if not big league value.
Edwards is another example of that, a lefty with above-average stuff and some relief risk but gaudy numbers this spring. I think this is also around where the prep left-hander group (Logan Schmidt, Gio Rojas, Carson Bolemon, Brody Bumila, Sean Duncan) all start being taken seriously as options.
Lowrance is a hot name (and I’m on board for taking him in this range, too) in the 20s while this also represents a floor for Grindlinger if he slides a bit.
Death, taxes and the Padres drafting a prep left-hander at a high pick. I think Rojas would be their preference here, but I could see Schmidt or Bumila also being the choice.
Bell’s shoulder issue has complicated his draft stock a bit, but his wide base of skills should land him somewhere between the 15th and 30th picks — depending on how teams interpret his medical.
Gracia and teammate Eric Becker have battled injuries this spring, so Gracia’s top-15 buzz early in the spring has dimmed a bit as his exit velos have faltered, but he’d be a nice value around this spot for the right team.
Kuhns is arrow-up since a short-lived move to the bullpen and is a candidate with a hot start to move even higher than this.
Schmidt is a big lefty who has been into the upper-90s with a solid pitch mix. He’s getting nibbles from teams in the top half of the first round but fits better somewhere in the back half.
Borthwick was cruising early in the season, sitting mostly in the low-90s, then started hitting the upper-90s and peaked in the triple digits a few weeks ago.
His big frame and unusual arm action make him a fit only for some teams, but the Braves haven’t been afraid to dip into the prep righty demographic, taking this type of player more than most teams.
A strong finish could help Townsend move up a lot, but he should have a floor around here. The Mets should be able to get a few college arms or higher-upside college position players to this pick.
Given what figures to be on the board, the Astros should end up with a college pitcher at one of their first-round picks (they also have the No. 17 pick).
Dietz gets the short end of the stick in this scenario, as his injuries mean he basically has just one year of college experience. If the doctors like what they see, he could move up around where Carlon is projected, if not higher, with a similar profile.
The Giants are tied to a prep lefty at their newly acquired 29th pick; I think Bolemon would be their choice in this scenario. Reddemann’s current injury limbo has him down here, but he could jump into the top 15 picks with a clean bill of health.
Brunson and Prosek are both rising of late and should comfortably land in the top 40 picks. Bumila should also get taken in the top 40 picks, but finding landing spots is still a little tricky given his scouting report is full of extremes: elbow surgery, 6-foot-9 basketball player, triple-digit heat, the worst breaking ball of any pitcher mentioned in this mock draft.
The industry chatter is that the Giants are both looking at prep lefties with the recently acquired pick and wanted more pool space to hopefully affect the top of the draft. Can the Giants offer enough money to embolden Cholowsky or Emerson to put their foot down on a price that would cause other teams to pass on one or both? Unlikely, but this scenario now has to be considered. It was a different regime, but this strategy is similar to how the Giants landed their current team president Buster Posey in the 2008 draft.
29. San Francisco Giants: Carson Bolemon, LHP, Southside Christian HS (SC) 30. Kansas City Royals: Logan Reddemann, RHP, UCLA 31. Arizona Diamondbacks: Chase Brunson, CF, TCU 32. St. Louis Cardinals: Cole Prosek, 3B/C, Magnolia Heights HS (MS) 33. Tampa Bay Rays: Brody Bumila, LHP, Bishop Feehan HS (MA) 34. Pittsburgh Pirates: Ace Reese, 3B, Mississippi State 35. New York Yankees: Eric Becker, SS, Virginia 36. Philadelphia Phillies: Aiden Ruiz, SS, Stony Brook HS (NY) 37. Colorado Rockies: James Clark, SS, St. John Bosco HS (CA) 38. Colorado Rockies: Archer Horn, SS, St. Ignatius Prep HS (CA) 39. Toronto Blue Jays: Connor Comeau, 3B, Anderson HS (TX) 40. Los Angeles Dodgers: Zion Rose, CF, Louisville