Tristan H. CockcroftMultiple AuthorsMar 4, 2026, 06:59 AM ET
There’s no more critical ingredient to any fantasy baseball manager’s success than a thorough knowledge of the player pool.
Each offseason, I spend many hours extensively researching all sorts of statistics, scouting reports and video, hoping to glean the most accurate read on each player’s skill set for the upcoming season. These notes get collected in a massive text document which I title my “Playbook.” It’s from this file that I craft my player rankings each season, and ultimately crease my own cheat sheets for my leagues.
Each of these notes might help strengthen your opinions on the listed players, or, if you disagree with them, they can merely serve as fun facts. Players are listed alphabetically.
Though he was limited to only 48 games due to injuries last season, Yordan Alvarez did perform like his usual, elite self when briefly healthy in August and September. Risk/reward or not, I lean more on his rankings in three key categories through his first seven big-league seasons: .573 slugging percentage (third among hitters with 1,000 plate appearances), 53.8% hard hit rate (fifth), 17.0% Barrel rate (sixth).
Roman Anthony made his MLB debut last June 9, and played in 71 of the Boston Red Sox’s next 73 games. During that time span, he posted the majors’ second-best Statcast hard hit rate (60.4%) and the eighth-best on-base percentage (.396), demonstrating his already elite ability. He’s due for a big breakthrough in 2026.
No player saw a greater increase in his walk rate from 2024 to 2025 than Jose Caballero, who boosted his by 7.1% in that time. He’s capable of serving as a platoon leadoff man against lefties, while playing at six different defensive positions, but the New York Yankees are expected to have him serve as their everyday shortstop through at least April. Caballero is an ideal steals source for roto managers.
Dylan Cease has struck out 214 or more batters in each of the past five seasons, the longest such active streak in baseball (by two over the next closest). He is one of 14 pitchers in history with a streak that long. Cease’s strikeout ability makes him an excellent bounce-back candidate with the Toronto Blue Jays, and keep in mind his 2025 expected ERA (3.46) was eerily close to his 2024 number (3.29).
Aroldis Chapman did re-establish himself as a top-five capable fantasy closer with his rebound 2025, but a degree of regression to his numbers is inevitable. He posted the lowest BABIP (.200) of his career, his highest left-on-base percentage (87.6%) in 10 years and his lowest HR/FB rate (5.8%) in seven years.
Though Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has failed to replicate his 2021 American League MVP runner-up numbers in four seasons since, perhaps his best traits have been his durability and consistency. He joined Freddie Freeman as the only players with at least 150 hits, 250 total bases and 80 RBI in each of the past five seasons, and unlike Freeman, Guerrero enters 2026 as a prime-age 27.
Griffin Jax’s skills have the look of an elite closer, should the Tampa Bay Rays decide to go with a singular option for 2026. Across the past two seasons, he had the third best K/BB ratio (5.49) and fourth-best FIP (2.21) among relievers, though he was done in by horrendous luck last season, with a relief pitcher-high .362 BABIP.
Carter Jensen tore it up while with Triple-A Omaha last season, his 58.8% hard-hit rate second best among anyone with at least 150 plate appearances at that competitive level. He then maintained a gaudy 58.3% hard-hit rate following his Sept. 1 call-up, the seventh-best number among hitters with at least as many as his 69 PAs. Jensen needs to be playing nearly every day for the Kansas City Royals.
George Kirby’s 3.6% walk rate through his first 112 career big-league starts is second lowest in the modern era, trailing only Carlos Silva’s 3.4%. Kirby dealt with both a shoulder issue and bad luck in 2025, but he kept his FIP (3.37) within range of his career number in the category. In fact, his 3.26 career number ranks eighth among the 69 pitchers to have made at least 80 starts since his May 8, 2022, debut.
Nick Kurtz’s rookie year wasn’t as far a cry from Judge’s as you might think. In fact, among rookies with at least 450 plate appearances, Kurtz’s .329 isolated power trailed only Judge’s .343 (2017) all-time, and Kurtz’s 173 OPS+ was second-best all time and two points ahead of Judge’s 171. There’s every reason to believe Kurtz will continue to be one of the league’s premier power hitters.
Injuries might have ruined Cole Ragans’ 2025, but don’t overlook how dominant he was in his three season-ending starts. He struck out 22 of the 48 hitters he faced, had a 42.0% whiff rate and averaged 95.3 mph with his fastball, the latter just 0.1 behind his 2024 average. Ragans entered spring training healthy and could be due for a major rebound season.
It wasn’t merely the torpedo bat that spawned Ben Rice’s breakthrough 2025, but also the adjustments he made to his batting stance the winter before. The result was a near-20% improvement to his hard-hit rate, to go along with his already 90th-percentile-or-better Barrel and chase rates. Rice finished sixth among batting title-eligible hitters with a .394 expected wOBA.
Julio Rodriguez has averaged 1.03 fantasy points per game fewer in the months of March and April than in the five months that follow. He is the only active player with a split that wide. It’s something to keep in mind if he gets off to a similarly slow start to the 2026 season.
The Pittsburgh Pirates provided Paul Skenes the third-worst run support among ERA-qualified pitchers last season, which explains his 10 wins. During the winter, however, they added Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn and Marcell Ozuna, who had wOBAs 48, 42 and 21 points higher than what the Pirates got from players at their three projected positions (2B, RF and DH) in 2025.
The pitching version of Yordan Alvarez (or Byron Buxton, take your pick) is surely Blake Snell. Among pitchers who made as many starts as Snell did the past four seasons, he has the highest strikeout rate (31.9%), second-best ERA (2.76) and fifth-best average of fantasy points per start (13.9). Unfortunately, 59 pitchers started more games than he did in that time.
There is only one pitcher who has totaled at least 200 innings with 20 quality starts in each of the past three seasons: Logan Webb. He has accounted for three of the nine total years of 200-IP, 20-QS campaigns among pitchers during that time, a remarkable testament to his durability and consistency.
Devin Williams’ lone year in pinstripes was a disappointment, but he was also plagued by horrendous luck. His 55.2% left-on-base rate was the lowest by any reliever with 50-plus innings pitched in 27 years (Bobby Ayala, 53.3% in 1998). If the “New York spotlight” contributed, then his move to the New York Mets might not significantly help, but my guess is that number will correct itself in 2026.
Gavin Williams might have a great career ahead of him, but he’s in danger of regression entering 2026. Last season, he had MLB’s worst qualified walk rate (11.8%), and the differential between his ERA and FIP (1.33 runs) was the widest in the wrong direction among those with the requisite innings for an ERA title.